What will replace the Holden Commodore?

WE’RE only a few months into this year and already the industry is abuzz over what will replace the Commodore after local production ceases in 2017.

On January 20, GM Holden announced that the imported successor would retain the name as well as the flavour of the VE/VF series that has been around for nearly nine years, and that is great news for fans of the 37 year-old badge.

“The next-generation large car we have selected from GM’s global portfolio is worthy of the iconic Commodore nameplate,” according to Holden’s director of sales Peter Keley.

The Buick Avenir Concept was designed and built in Australia, and points to what the 2017 Lacrosse will look like. Will it be the next Commodore?

“When it arrives in 2018, our new large car will honour Commodore’s heritage and support a long and successful future for Holden in Australia and New Zealand. Holden and Commodore aren’t going anywhere, they will remain pillars of Australian motoring for many years to come.”

But it raises more questions than answers, since a number of possible scenarios exist. For starters, will it be rear-wheel drive, front-wheel drive or an all-wheel drive combination?

The most likely scenario will involve the direct replacement for the unloved Holden Malibu, based on the next-generation Opel Insignia. This will probably mean a move away from the circa five-metre long sedan that has been a mainstay in the Australian large-car market since the 1997 VT Commodore, for something probably around the 4.8m dimensions of today’s Toyota Camry.

The 2013 Opel Monza Concept from the Frankfurt Motor Show signals GM’s styling direction for its future larger vehicles.

The 2013 Frankfurt Motor Show-stealing Opel Monza provides a glimpse of what the 2017/8 Insignia might look like, however features such as the gullwing doors and oversized tyres are stylistic flights of fancy.

Interestingly, while the current Chevrolet-derived Malibu has been a sales bust in Australia (in part due to its price and size proximity to the homegrown VF series), Holden is giving the Opel Insignia another try in a few months in performance-orientated VXR guise.

This move, some industry watchers are speculating, points to the company laying down the foundations for the next-generation version to take over.

The current Insignia from Opel is making a comeback as the high-performance Holden Insignia VXR. Is it a sign of things to come for HSV?

Since the global mass market for large cars has dwindled significantly over the last decade, a second possibility is using a stretched version of the next-gen Insignia/Malibu. The current Malibu has already sired the Chevrolet Impala, with the latest version only going on sale Stateside since 2014. All use GM’s Epsilon II underpinnings. Other offshoots include the Buick Lacrosse and the Cadillac XTS.

In China, similar extended versions of mid-size sedans such as the Lacrosse are in high demand due to the importance of rear-seat space (most owners are chauffeured). One of this year’s Detroit Motor Show highlights – the Buick Avenir Concept – might be the visual pointer to this vehicle. Regular Shannons readers might recall that the latter was styled and built in Fishermens Bend, Port Melbourne, by Holden, from a sketch by long-time designer Warrack Leach. That car measures in at over 5.0m long, by the way.

Holden is already working on stretched Malibu prototypes for China, signalling a stronger link with the model for Australia moving forward.

A third car that might step in for the Commodore involves a high-performance rear-drive offshoot of a future Cadillac-based sedan.

With General Motors executive vice president and president of GM International Stefan Jacoby telling Australian motoring journalists in Detroit in January that a rear-drive V8 coupe is under consideration for our market from 2018, it may be that higher-end high-performance imports may serve as replacements for the HSV line of Commodores.

Of course, with access to the entire GM portfolio – or at least, models that are produced in right-hand drive – Holden can choose any or all of the above to help fill in the gap left by the VF.

It’s clearly worthwhile, with the nameplate being Holden’s most popular in 2014 with 30,203 sales, representing an 8.8 per cent climb over the previous year's haul of 27,766. Since its May 2013 release, the Commodore has been in the top five best-selling cars on a monthly basis, outselling the Ford Falcon and Toyota’s locally made Aurion and Camry alternatives.

While GM remains tight-lipped about what will replace it, Mr Jacoby did drop these morsels of information.

Besides being styled in Australia, lending weight to the theory that Avenir could serve as a Commodore or Caprice replacement is its aggressive rear-drive proportions

“I cannot reveal full details of the next-generation vehicle,” he said, “but I can say it will either compare very favourably or improve on the current Commodore’s dynamic performance, acceleration, fuel economy, running costs and mass.

“The current VF Commodore has set new standards for quality and driveability and continues to perform well in the Australian and New Zealand markets. We are confident that from 2018, we can honour Commodore’s heritage and chart a new direction for the next-generation vehicle that is worthy of the esteemed Commodore name.”

Ford has been spied testing a large car in Australia several times since the middle of last year; this is speculated to be the US Taurus replacement.

With the next-generation Taurus-sized prototypes already spotted, Ford is in a similar position with the Falcon replacement. However, the Blue Oval looks set to abandon the large-car segment altogether in Australia, and will rely solely on the all-new MD-series Mondeo mid-sizer as its largest passenger offering.

Byron Mathioudakis goauto.com.au

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